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The existing commitment58 of housing land at April 2020 is large and shapes the GNLP strategy. The existing allocations, including Site Allocation plans, Area Action Plans and Neighbourhood Plans, derive from the Joint Core Strategy (JCS). These allocations have been demonstrated to be sustainable and, except for later phases of some larger sites where delivery is unlikely before 2038, they are included in this strategy. This deliverable commitment, including uplift on existing allocations and homes delivered since the start of the plan period in April 2018, provides 74% of the total housing growth identified in this plan to 2038.
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The Government produced a standard methodology for identifying local housing need in December 202059 which requires forecasts to be based on the 2014 household projections unless there are exceptional local circumstances. Consequently, this plan follows the required approach and local housing need derived from the 2014-based household projections is set out in row A of Table 6 below. This local housing need is the target against which land supply will be measured (see appendix 6).
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To ensure the identified need can be met, it is normal practice to identify additional potential supply to buffer against under-delivery, typically around 10%. This plan includes a significantly larger buffer to provide the potential to accommodate higher growth rates as signalled both by the Government’s “Planning for the Future” consultation and by the 2018-based projections for Greater Norwich which are somewhat higher than the 2014-based projections. The potential growth indicated by the 2018-based projections would equate to the identification of around 5,000 additional homes. Table 6 below sets out how the resulting total housing figure from 2018 to 2038 for the GNLP has been established using the standard methodology and including a significant buffer to ensure delivery:
Table 6 Establishing the Plan’s total housing potential figure
| Number of Homes | Explanation | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| A | Local housing need (2018 to 2038) | 40,541 | The minimum local housing need figure has been identified using the Government’s standard methodology using 2014-based projections. |
| B | Delivery 2018/2019 and 2019/20 | 5,240 | The number of homes built in 2018/2019 and 2019/20 (including student accommodation and housing for the elderly). |
| C | Existing commitment (at April 2020) to be delivered to 2038 (including uplift on allocated sites) | 31,452 | The existing commitment is the undelivered sites which are already allocated and/or permitted, with parts of or whole sites unlikely to be delivered by 2038 excluded. Uplifts on existing allocations are included here. |
| D | New allocations | 10,704 | These are the homes to be provided on new sites allocated through the GNLP (9,254), the South Norfolk Village Clusters Housing Sites Allocation Plan (1,200) and the Diss and area Neighbourhood Plan (250). |
| E | Homes delivered through policy 7.5 | 800 | Policy 7.5 provides for delivery of 3 to 5 homes on small scale sites adjacent to settlement boundaries or on small sites within recognisable group of dwellings60. |
| F | Windfall allowance | 1,296 | There is a limited reliance on windfall sites. Evidence provides an estimated 4,450 homes resulting from windfall development during the remainder of the plan period61. As windfall delivery is likely to remain robustly high it is appropriate to include a limited proportion as part of total potential delivery. |
| G = B + C + E + F | Total housing potential | 49,492 | The total housing potential for the plan consists of delivery (B), commitments (C), new allocations (D), homes delivered through policy 7.5 (E) and the windfall allowance (F). This provides a buffer of 22% to cater for the potential for higher growth rates. It also mitigates any risk of non-delivery of sites to ensure delivery of local housing need. |
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In line with the above figures, policy 1 provides for around 49,500 new homes. This is the total provision in the plan and is not the need or target against which land supply will be measured (see appendix 6). The residual annual target for the 18 years of the remainder of the period, taking account of delivery between 2018 and 2020, is 40,541 (Row A) minus 5,240 (Row B), divided by 18 which equals 1,961 per annum.
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In addition to the allocations in this plan, a minimum of 1,200 of these homes will be allocated in the South Norfolk Village Clusters Housing Site Allocations document and 250 will be provided through allocations in the Diss and area Neighbourhood Plan. These 1,400 homes are included in the allocations in Row D.
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To provide additional flexibility to ensure housing need can be met, a contingency site at Costessey for around 800 homes is included in this plan should this prove to be required due to low delivery of allocated housing sites.
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Policy 7.5 also allows for limited further development on small sites of 3 homes in smaller parishes and 5 dwellings in larger parish during the plan period.
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Windfall developments provide additional potential for housing delivery. Policy 1 supports appropriate windfall development, including sites in and adjacent to villages and small brownfield sites.
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Based on previous local trends, the likely scale of windfall housing development is in the region of 4,450 dwellings in the remainder of the plan period to 2038. The table above shows that 30% of the estimated windfall delivery is counted as a windfall allowance. Demand will determine whether windfall development is instead of, or in addition to, allocated growth.
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The Government encourages authorities to consider higher levels of growth than that required to meet local housing need, particularly where there is the potential for significant economic growth. Our overall approach, including to windfalls, contingency and having a significant buffer, builds in flexibility to support higher than trend economic growth incorporating the Greater Norwich City Deal.
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It also sets us on the path to the higher housing numbers which recent projections and “Planning for the Future” indicate will be required locally to address affordability issues. This provides continuity between the current and future direction of travel in Government policy to provide more housing to address needs.
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A significant element of any further growth required in the next plan under the new planning system will be at a new settlement or settlements (see policy 7.6).
Footnotes
58Housing Commitment is sites which are allocated or have permission for housing development
59Detail available here. The GNLP is being produced using the 2014 household forecasts as the basis for establishing housing need as required by the guidance. Recognising that the 2018-based projections indicate that growth may be higher, there is a significant delivery buffer, a contingency site and the plan makes use of only a proportion of its projected windfall delivery as a windfall allowance.
60See policy 7.5 and appendix 7 for further information.
61The projection of delivery from windfall sites is based on the method used in the 5 Year Housing Land Supply Statement for Greater Norwich for the period beginning 1 April 2019, published on 5 February 2020.