Population

The estimated total population⁷ of the three districts in  2018 was 409,000. Of this, 55% of the population live in the Norwich urban area⁸, with around 10% living in the market towns of Aylsham, Diss, Long Stratton, Harleston and Wymondham. Around 35% of the population live in smaller towns and villages. 

Parishes close to the city have a strong relationship with Norwich, while parts of the area look to the network of towns and larger villages to meet every day  needs and provide employment

Long term trends underpin the need for the GNLP to plan for continued population growth. The numbers of people living in Greater Norwich rose steadily from 351,000 in 2001 to 381,000 in 2011¹⁰.  This was due to both natural increase, such as people living longer, and people moving into the area, largely from elsewhere in the United Kingdom.

Estimates shown in the graph below are based on the 2014 and 2018-based population projections. These suggest that increases will continue in the years up to 2038, with the population rising to between 463,000 and 470,000 by 2038¹¹.  Our housing need calculation is derived from the standard methodology and its requirement to base it on 2014 based projections, and our targets reflect this, but we recognise the 2018-based  projections are different and we have a plan with the flexibility to provide for this additional growth.

The population of Greater Norwich has relatively high proportions of older people compared to national figures and this pattern is set to increase to 2038 as shown in the charts below¹². Broadland and South Norfolk have proportions of older people significantly above the national average. Further growth of the older population will add to already significant pressure on residential and home care services, so it is important that the GNLP plans for changing housing needs.

Birth rates have declined in recent years, both locally and nationally.  The birth rate in Greater Norwich fell from 11.3 in 2011 to 9.6 in 2018¹³ reflecting the national pattern. The birth rate in England and Wales in 2018 was the lowest ever recorded.

However, there are higher than average proportions of young adults in Norwich and the pie charts above show that this trend is set to continue. This is largely due to the high and growing student population. Graduate retention in our area is good. But demographic changes mean more and more older people will be supported by fewer people of working age, therefore it is important that the plan helps to keep young people in our area by assisting in providing suitable jobs and housing.

While the overall proportion of minority ethnic residents is relatively low, there was a significant increase from 1.8% in the Greater Norwich area in 2001 to 4.8% in 2011. This increase is particularly relevant to Norwich, which saw an increase from 3.2% in 2001 to 9.3% in 2011.

⁷ONS 2018 based sub-national population projections

⁸The Norwich Urban area is Norwich and the built-up parts of the fringe parishes of Colney, Costessey, Cringleford, Drayton, Easton, Hellesdon, Old Catton, Sprowston, Taverham, Thorpe St. Andrew, Trowse and the remainder of the Growth Triangle.

⁹ONS census 2011 from https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/localarea  

¹⁰Census data as above

¹²ONS 2014 based and ONS 2018-based sub-national population projections

¹²Source ONS 2018 projections

¹³Source ONS – the birth rate is the number of live births per year per thousand people