How will the area’s population change?

Long term trends underpin the need for the GNLP to plan for continued population growth. The numbers of people living in Greater Norwich rose steadily from 351,000 in 2001 to 381,000 in 2011. This was due to both natural increase, such as people living longer, and people moving into the area, largely from elsewhere in the UK. Further estimates shown in the graph below suggest that this increase will continue in the years up to 2038, rising from around 406,000 in 2018 to around 452,000 by 2038.

population 1

The population of Greater Norwich has relatively high proportions of older people compared to national figures and this pattern is set to increase to 2038. Broadland and South Norfolk have proportions of older people significantly above the national average. Further growth of the older population will add to already significant pressure on residential and home care services, so it is important that the GNLP plans for changing housing needs.

population 2

Population predictions by age group show that:

  • the proportion of people aged 65 and over is expected to grow by 4% from 21% to 26% by 2038.
  • the proportion of people in the main working age groups (25-44 and 45-64) will fall by 5% from 50% to 46%.

An ageing population will give rise to higher demand for specialist services and accommodation for elderly people. At the same time the decline in the working age population will mean a smaller tax base to fund care services.