How much housing is being proposed?
Leading experts were commissioned to undertake a study known as a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA). This analyses population growth trends, household formation rates, affordability issues, evidence from developers and the predictions for economic growth to decide our “objectively assessed need” (OAN) for housing.
Since completing the SHMA, the government has proposed a standard method for calculating an area’s OAN. Although this method could change, it is sensible to base this local plan consultation on the method indicated by the government. This method suggests an OAN of around 39,000 homes in the period 2017 to 2036.
We also have to ensure the plan is flexible enough to support a growing economy and to provide for our OAN even if some sites are not built by 2036. Therefore, an additional 10% contingency or delivery buffer is added and the plan will ensure that sufficient sites are identified for around 42,900 homes.
As of April 2017 we already had a commitment of identified sites for nearly 35,700 homes, so the GNLP needs to provide land for 7,200 additional homes.